Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.


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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of PLwhite centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
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Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman


  • Mrbuck832 Idk
    Mrbuck832 Idk5 godzin temu

    fun fact about mac control v makes radicals

  • Not Fond of Guns
    Not Fond of Guns6 godzin temu

    I gotta say, he really seems to be avoiding the answer. Idk Matt,

  • Raysabem My old account got deleted
    Raysabem My old account got deleted7 godzin temu

    7 times

  • Damien Rodriguez
    Damien Rodriguez10 godzin temu

    Dream S.M.P More like Dream S.I.M.P!!!

  • GutturalJoker The cool
    GutturalJoker The cool15 godzin temu

    Everybody should leave him alone he’s just a speed runner that was lucky he did not cheat!!!!😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡

  • Kirby Cloud9

    Kirby Cloud9

    2 godzin temu

    Dream stan

  • Meme bean
    Meme bean18 godzin temu

    Green bean pog

  • StienoGamez
    StienoGamez19 godzin temu

    Dreams investigator even said dream most likely cheated

  • isabella ashby
    isabella ashby23 godzin temu

    what's sad is that dream doesn't even do speed running anymore (unless its like 4am)

  • Challenger's Approach
    Challenger's ApproachDzień temu

    I'm one of the half unlucky ones,I have half good teachers and half bad teachers.

  • Lmao Max
    Lmao MaxDzień temu

    yes. he did.

  • Chair Stopping Films
    Chair Stopping FilmsDzień temu

    I like how he didn't answer the question

  • RedTomato
    RedTomatoDzień temu

    Not even joking, I have learned more from Mat's three channels, than I have from school, I use a lot of the things I have learned from them all the time

  • Bevin
    BevinDzień temu

    speedrunning community: We think Dream cheated us: Did he cheat though? I think not.. MatPat: Why is Dream???????? 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

  • Rige0901


    12 godzin temu

    Why keep dreaming? Why not achieve that dream??

  • Orikku
    OrikkuDzień temu

    I miss the old days of game theory

  • Mickey Lev
    Mickey LevDzień temu

    When there's no concensus just a fancy conclusion.

  • Dream
    DreamDzień temu

    Why would I cheat

  • Mickey Lev

    Mickey Lev

    Dzień temu

    why would you pretend to be dream

  • Shen Rui peng
    Shen Rui pengDzień temu

    Dream didn't cheat

  • Faye Harrington
    Faye Harrington2 dni temu


  • Random
    Random2 dni temu

    I have no idea what you just said

  • Shaurya Midas
    Shaurya Midas2 dni temu


  • Dream
    Dream2 dni temu

    10 times

  • LogoAndMikey
    LogoAndMikey2 dni temu

    POV, you walk into the comments to find dream stans: Where idiot at?

  • coconut
    coconut2 dni temu

    Awww dream no...

  • Minecraft Vs Roblox gaming
    Minecraft Vs Roblox gaming2 dni temu

    if dream would have seen this he would comment and say "no i did not cheat mat, no point in making this theory"

  • XxfairyxX UWU
    XxfairyxX UWU2 dni temu

    OMG lol i thought i was the only one who is looking for an answer if he cheated or not lol i thought i just didnt understand any thing he said but apparently all of us dont knoe the answer to the question hahaha

  • RedEyesTops
    RedEyesTops2 dni temu

    Make room for MathPath

  • Jonathan Högberg
    Jonathan Högberg2 dni temu

    Enderpearl 16% Dreams luck 4.7% The drop rate Almost 4 times as high! Blaze rod 69.2% Dreams luck 50% The drop rate Barely 1.4 times higher. If they looked up the Lucky speedruns: There can be a missfortune where they calculated wrong. And if they looked up al of his speedruns in general: There is either a verry lucky person or something is rigged. 42 to 262 Piglin barters and 211 to 305 is not impossible. I have for instance played minecraft ALOT and i am sometimes "The other way around" Verry Unlucky. I can almost bet that i have slain multiple times around up to ~30 blazes without reaching 7 rods. And pearl trading, last time i tried i had a total of almost 1 stacks of blocks, and reached a maximum of 5 pearls before i went enderman hunting. Does this sound fake? So my luck over al is under 50% lets say around 35% on blazerods? And pearl trades i bet is not good? 9x64= 576 gold! So 5 pearls on "at most 576" is under 1%. Also remember there is chances for more then one pearl per trade, i dont know what scale it is thoe. Is this fake? Conclusion: I am almost the other way around for what Dream reached in total with my totals i put together. Also if He/I/You have looting that raises droprates. I think there is a small chance that he is legit. But i do also sometimes question it. I myself dont like Dream that much but i still support the fact that there may be a chance that it is legit. And that there may have been something messed up. Your calculations says that he most surely cheats, but i think as i said there is a chance he didnt. Also dream have been looked up since he started Manhunting for rigged gameplays, so alot of people look at everything "fishy" and some draw hasty conclusions. Last thing to mention: I didnt speedrun, I played to reach the End, but to be sure to reach the End. And I still fail in luck? Last question: Is there maybie a chance that one piglin drops pearls more often then another piglin?

  • Kirby Cloud9

    Kirby Cloud9

    2 godzin temu

    Did you copy and paste that?

  • LaserAgentRyan
    LaserAgentRyan2 dni temu

    Bruh the short tension span comment it’s so true Edit statistically wouldn’t it be 60 or more heads

  • William Crossman
    William Crossman3 dni temu

    I like Mr Beast in the background buying every thing

  • Weaponxfan YT
    Weaponxfan YT3 dni temu

    I think flipping a coin and getting 60+ heads is more likely than the other option, as flipping a coin 10 times and getting 7 heads or more is equivalent to flipping a coin 100 times and getting 70+ heads. Edit: uh- nevermind 😅

  • Jasmine Gallagher
    Jasmine Gallagher3 dni temu

    idk about chris and his houseplants, but try mint. It has a lot of uses, grows like a weed, and can grow in just about anything, nearly anywhere as long as it has water. This for MatPat but also anyone who sucks at gardening

  • Game and Watch is Dumb
    Game and Watch is Dumb3 dni temu

    To the people saying he didn’t answer... that’s because there is no way to know.

  • Enzo Scrivener
    Enzo Scrivener3 dni temu

    this is how im revising for my maths gcse

  • Pikachu
    Pikachu3 dni temu

    Matpat sounded like izuku in the intro lol

  • Nicolae Flavius Gordan
    Nicolae Flavius Gordan3 dni temu


  • Orikku


    Dzień temu

    That’s a long name

  • not buzzyblade
    not buzzyblade3 dni temu

    u cant spawn ender pearls and theres no /spawn but theres /give LMAO

  • Chumy Something

    Chumy Something

    3 dni temu

    He never said that Dream SPAWNED the elder pearls, he said he altered and tampered with the elder pearl drop rate.

  • Jesse Derringer
    Jesse Derringer4 dni temu

    Simply put yes he did cheat

  • Jesse Derringer

    Jesse Derringer

    3 dni temu

    @Isaac McEvoy it is so insanely unlikely that it makes it impossible

  • Isaac McEvoy

    Isaac McEvoy

    4 dni temu

    can you prove it

  • Juels_Draws_Stuff ツ
    Juels_Draws_Stuff ツ4 dni temu

    11:27 uhh is no one gonna talk about how weird mat sounds right here? what is he doing here??? what is this sence from?? WHAT IS HAPPING?? wHaT iS tHe mEaNiNg oF lIfe?????????????????????????????//

  • Super Dude
    Super Dude4 dni temu

    Matpat: watch this will end up on the PLwhite trending tab Matpat when he sees it on trending: 👁👄👁

  • Sir Noob
    Sir Noob4 dni temu

    7 times

  • morgan sage
    morgan sage4 dni temu


  • Cozmo 081
    Cozmo 0814 dni temu

    i want a life theory channel.. it would be interesting

  • Walter Ruiz
    Walter Ruiz4 dni temu

    This is one of the videos that would be great to create as an exception to the video length rules of the channel (~18-24 mins per vídeo) because it needs time to explain the background yet it obviously rushed to analyze all the available math, there's no talk of the subsequent simulations to prove what paper was closer to reality, no analysis of the stimates themselves (nor an hypothetical case that exemplifies the algorithm) and that's a bit disappointing when your main reason to watch was expecting a more detailed detour of what everyone had already read. And to clarify, this is a good introduction to the dilemma, as GT wanted to stay neutral (even though they didn't directly answer the question of the thumbnail) I respect the final thoughs brought at the end (which are actually happening ATM according to other comments).

  • Jake Evara
    Jake Evara4 dni temu

    Dude, I just sat through your 23 minute spiel (and an ad-break) and you didn't say whether you think he faked his run or not. The title clearly promises an answer to the question. Not cool. 😣

  • Brenton
    Brenton4 dni temu

    You say margarine very wrong.

  • VinnyRulesGaming
    VinnyRulesGaming4 dni temu

    15:48 the literal definition of a theory lol

  • Ismail
    Ismail4 dni temu


  • Squid King
    Squid King5 dni temu

    "Did Dream cheat" Matpat: WE GET THERE WHEN WE GET THERE

  • WizardCrafterz
    WizardCrafterz5 dni temu

    "...taking the world most relaxing game😃....and turning it into a war zone😮..."

  • Lyrical L
    Lyrical L5 dni temu

    Flipping a coin 10 times 7+ head

  • 100_minutes
    100_minutes5 dni temu

    "Did he cheat, Mat?" *"IM A CREEPER, MINECRAFT GRIM REAPER"*

  • Zombie Zeus

    Zombie Zeus

    4 dni temu


  • No One

    No One

    4 dni temu


  • Legendary Comments
    Legendary Comments5 dni temu

    I have to say matpat is smart

  • reapeye 1
    reapeye 15 dni temu

    ok so i know matpat didnt give any real answer but technically all he is really saying is that well.... he doesnt know the answer because its all luck. he was most likely pushed to make a video about this and when he knew that he couldnt have a definitive answer he just pushed it aside and tbh he right because its all about luck by the end of the day so it could go either way. in my opinion dream didnt cheat but if he did well thats on him. if anyone sees this either like if you agree orrrrrr like and then bombared me with comments calling me a dream stan lmao

  • Soloshort


    4 dni temu

    It wasn’t down to his skills because dream does have skills but more down to amount of luck he got when trading with the hogglins.

  • Knight Artorias
    Knight Artorias5 dni temu

    If you want to hear the gospel, press read more..... Jesus died for our sins, he suffered and did nothing wrong. A crown of thorns was dug into his skull, was whipped 39 times, then was forced to carry a giant wooden cross up a hill. Then finally, was crucified and suffered the full wrath if God, he rose once more three days later. Believe this, and you will inherit eternal life.

  • 6-1 Тамир.Т
    6-1 Тамир.Т5 dni temu

    dreams real

  • Margie Bruner
    Margie Bruner5 dni temu

    Wait bruh waittt hold up on one of these things he showed us one of them was not dreams it was one of drem he is a fake speed runner he posted one of his clips on her so that must not be dream clips wall at most of one is of dream in the drem

  • Carmaster the shooter master
    Carmaster the shooter master5 dni temu

    IM b ON 8:28

  • REASONS Apologetics
    REASONS Apologetics6 dni temu

    The second one

  • Beans
    Beans6 dni temu

    GeoSquare and Dream: *fighting about a videogame* Commentary channels: He cheated Stans: He didn't! MatPat: But why?

  • Isabelle Nanney
    Isabelle Nanney6 dni temu

    I think... it's a no? He proves that Dream's arguments are more logical than the Minecraft speedrunning team's so I assume that he doesn't think Dream cheated :/

  • morbideddie


    5 dni temu

    Correction, he asserts Dreams arguments are credible, then avoids the question. Dream cheated, it’s not really in contention by anyone who understands probability.

  • Marceline Kibukila
    Marceline Kibukila6 dni temu


  • Joe Enderman
    Joe Enderman6 dni temu

    I know that sometimes it is hard to pick a side on an issue because you don't want to offend anyone, but if the issue is a "right and wrong" issue rather than "right and left" you should be willing to condemn or justify the involved parties. If Dream is innocent, then why leave the slightest smudge on a good man's credibility? What did he do to offend you? If he cheated, then why skirt around the issue? No one likes a cheater, and even more so, they don't like people who support and allow cheating.

  • Madkrusher
    Madkrusher6 dni temu


  • Alpha
    Alpha6 dni temu

    I bet matpat can solve who dream is

  • Smart gamer 123
    Smart gamer 1236 dni temu

    100 coin flips

  • Aloke Schlichtmann
    Aloke Schlichtmann6 dni temu

    So did dream cheat or not

  • Duke Smite

    Duke Smite

    2 dni temu

    Welp dream just cheat on speedrunning somehow he was caught for cheating and lying cus dream actually deleted this response vid for lying cus the drop chance is insane which is fake so dream iust lie and fake speedrunning

  • Chumy Something

    Chumy Something

    3 dni temu


  • Noriaki Kakyoin

    Noriaki Kakyoin

    5 dni temu

    @dabudaby "Correction, he asserts Dreams arguments are credible, then avoids the question. Dream cheated, it’s not really in contention by anyone who understands probability." - morbideddie

  • dabudaby


    5 dni temu

    probably not because he proves that Dream's arguments are more logical than the Minecraft speedrunning team's

  • Chungus Toad
    Chungus Toad7 dni temu

    I personally don’t like dream but I don’t think he cheats

  • Duke Smite

    Duke Smite

    2 dni temu

    Welp dream just cheat on speedrunning somehow he was caught for cheating and lying cus dream actually deleted this response vid for lying cus the drop chance is insane which is fake so dream iust lie and fake speedrunning

  • Chungus Toad

    Chungus Toad

    6 dni temu

    @Justin Emilio Belchez then I would most likely believe you

  • Justin Emilio Belchez

    Justin Emilio Belchez

    6 dni temu

    What if I tell you, he does?

  • sonia mckenzie
    sonia mckenzie7 dni temu

    im back i think if u flip a coin 10 times ur more likely to get heads 7 times

  • sonia mckenzie
    sonia mckenzie7 dni temu

    oh no i think u broke Robert lmao ok ill stop talking :(

  • Leeland DeLeeuw
    Leeland DeLeeuw7 dni temu

    I came here to read the comments from dreamm stans who ddn't watch the video but go mad anyway.

  • Ragul Karthik
    Ragul Karthik7 dni temu

    So no one gonna talk about me beast buying a pizza

  • Mehrunes
    Mehrunes7 dni temu

    True, game based on random generator world should never become a speedrun

  • morbideddie


    7 dni temu

    @Mehrunes while yes it can be an RNG fest that’s the same for pretty much most speed games. Golden eye and ocarina of time are two of the most famous speed games of all time and they are very heavily RNG dependent in some sections. Looking at the boards most of the top spots are filled by known runners who are skilled and respected. Give a god seed to a less skilled player and they won’t turn that into a wr. Plus there are loads of categories that focus on different aspects of the game. SSG let’s you practice the same map massively reducing the RNG elements. FSG gives you a god seed each time so you can get the on the fly thinking of a RSG but without the lottery aspect being as strong. There is something for everyone but I think the random world aspects are one of the more unique aspects of the game that make it less focused on execution and more on game knowledge and quick thinking.

  • Mehrunes


    7 dni temu

    ​@morbideddie this's just my personal opinion. You're absolutely right, MC still requires skills, reflex, and knowledge. But the Random generated world makes the run become an RNG fest. Unlucky seed can add 1-3 minutes to the run And every action also have its RNG the best-skilled player can be beaten by pure luck. And when you're too lucky, the run became suspicious That's the reason why MC not my favorite speedrun. But I do enjoy Speedrun VS Hunter

  • morbideddie


    7 dni temu

    Why? Speedrunning isn’t just about mechanical execution, routing the world on the fly requires tons of skill and game knowledge that’s completely valid.

  • Emperor Akatsuki
    Emperor Akatsuki7 dni temu

    10 times 6 heads =100 times 60 heads 100 times 70 heads = 10 times 7 heads the latter has more luck

  • Emperor Akatsuki

    Emperor Akatsuki

    6 dni temu

    ​@morbideddie Ooh O.O, so that's how it works, good to know(~ ̄▽ ̄)~

  • morbideddie


    7 dni temu

    The law of large numbers goes counter to this, the larger the set of trials the less likely we are to see significant changes from the average.

  • KK Puffin
    KK Puffin7 dni temu

    what red button? I only see a gray one.

  • just a random Minecraft PS4 player
    just a random Minecraft PS4 player7 dni temu


  • OrdinaryBear
    OrdinaryBear7 dni temu

    Question : "Did Dream Cheat ?" Answer : "You know, luck is not cool"

  • Patricia Talosig
    Patricia Talosig8 dni temu

    dream dint fake i tryed all of his the tricks mlg water



    8 dni temu

    is this a joke?

  • Patricia Talosig

    Patricia Talosig

    8 dni temu

    and the haybale and ladder and boat clutch evrything 😒😒😒😒😒😒😤😤😤😤😤

  • The Game podcaster
    The Game podcaster8 dni temu


  • Prince Awesome
    Prince Awesome8 dni temu

    Flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads 7 of them I think

  • -Lemon Muffin-
    -Lemon Muffin-8 dni temu

    For the heads and tails thing I chose 7- Dunno if it's correct-

  • superbas gamingYT
    superbas gamingYT8 dni temu

    Idk matpat but make a theory on friday night funkin

  • Archana Gupta
    Archana Gupta8 dni temu

    flip 100 times is more likely

  • M0bZ0Mb!3
    M0bZ0Mb!38 dni temu

    It's sad to hear all these comments saying this is clickbait, it's like mattpatt isn't allowed to give you his ideas and talk about things that interest him and people just want the theory and conclusion.

  • BRUH bruh bruh BRUH bruh bruh
    BRUH bruh bruh BRUH bruh bruh8 dni temu

    69.2 percent nice

  • Dan 5

    Dan 5

    8 dni temu


  • C0C0N8T
    C0C0N8T8 dni temu

    Its not his fault for cheating. Its the GAMES fault for involving too much RNG LMAOOOO

  • Techno


    4 dni temu




    8 dni temu

    It's Dream's fault because he didn't say anything about it. You wanna mod the game to have better rng, fine. But if you want to lie and pretend you didn't, that's a problem.

  • Royally Challenged
    Royally Challenged9 dni temu

    Everyone is in the comments like, "He didn't say anything cuz dream cheated." I think it's hilarious that they all say it the same way, too. "He didn't say he cheated bc he didn't want the dream stans hating on him." LMFAO I'm dying over her

  • gay jail
    gay jail9 dni temu

    He cheated. (I'm 100% sure about that.) Legitimately everyone NOT close to him says he cheated. Also i'm pretty sure he didn't use the proper minecraft resource? (Or something like that, I watched that one math dudes video.)

    ΔΗΜΗΤΡΗΣ ΜΠΑΝΤΗΣ9 dni temu

    i am soo dump i did not understand anything in this video

  • Dondlo
    Dondlo9 dni temu

    Hey Game Theory, Matpat here. Did Dream fake his speedrun?

  • CaptainCustard
    CaptainCustard9 dni temu

    my teacher told me flipping a coin is actually 51/49 not much of a difference but its something

  • Foxy The Fox

    Foxy The Fox

    6 dni temu

    Kinda as if it's more likely that it comes from the side it was flipping which is usually heads

  • tutacat
    tutacat9 dni temu

    "its not a simple apple to oranges comparison"

  • Iskra Tatomir
    Iskra Tatomir9 dni temu

    10 times bc its 7 with is 10 less for the 100 times

  • Rick I Sanchez
    Rick I Sanchez9 dni temu

    100 Times 60 had because 10 times 7had it's almost the same the only Thing is missing is a 0. that makes 10 Times 7 had almost the same as 100times 70 had PS I didn't had al Ferry good school 😅

  • o.o
    o.o9 dni temu

    I come back to this channel after a couple years of not watching it, and I waste 23 minutes and 29 seconds of my life just to be told about a sponsor from skillshare

  • GreekSoldier20
    GreekSoldier209 dni temu

    yeah is hard speedrun kill ender dragon idk dream are cheating or not

  • fnaf the girl Victoria Victoria fnaf
    fnaf the girl Victoria Victoria fnaf9 dni temu

    Hi :)

  • Xander Castaneda
    Xander Castaneda9 dni temu

    Why didn't you give us the truth matpat?

  • LaserM
    LaserM9 dni temu

    I admit, the learning experience is evn to watch this, becouse I am not from America, UK, bla bla bla, you get the point.

  • blessed_boio
    blessed_boio9 dni temu

    So basically, at the end hes trying to hide the facts and data to explain speedrunning..... this isn't even an analysis its just a grab for views.

  • Yisus HC
    Yisus HC9 dni temu

    Pretty sure ibxtoycat beat minecraft in under 5 Min but it was on bedrock so idk if it counts



    8 dni temu

    They played on a set seed, which is a different category to the main one

  • morbideddie


    9 dni temu

    Bedrock and set seed so not really comparable to a Java RSG run.